2024 Market Outlook & Year in Review



Economic Indicators:

  • Interest Rates: TRREB anticipates that the Bank of Canada’s expected reduction in interest rates will bolster homebuyers’ confidence and support a resurgence in the housing market[1].
  • Inflation**: The rate of inflation is projected to recede, which would contribute to lower interest rates and improved market conditions[1].

Market Dynamics:
– Sales Growth**: There was a significant increase in home sales in January 2024 compared to the previous year, suggesting a positive start to the year[1].
– New Listings**: The number of new listings also rose, but at a slower rate than sales, indicating tighter market conditions[1].
– Price Trends**: The average selling price was down by one percent year-over-year to $1,026,703, but there is potential for renewed price growth moving into the spring[1].

Housing Supply and Demand:
– Population Growth**: Record population increases are expected to fuel demand for housing in the GTA[2].
– Housing Supply**: TRREB emphasizes the need for a substantial increase in housing supply to match population growth and alleviate affordability issues[2].
– Affordability Challenges**: Despite the potential for lower borrowing costs, affordability will remain a challenge for some households[2].

Consumer Sentiment:
– Buying Intentions**: Ipsos consumer polling indicates steady buying intentions, with 28% of respondents considering purchasing a home in 2024[2].
– Homeownership Transition**: First-time buyers facing high rents could benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the transition to homeownership more affordable[1].

Projections for 2024:
– Sales Forecast: TRREB projects a total of 77,000 sales in 2024, with the average selling price expected to reach $1,170,000 for all home types combined[2].
– Rental Market: Some relief for the GTA’s condo rental market is forecasted, as more renter households may move into homeownership[3].

Policy Recommendations:
– Mortgage Stress Test: TRREB suggests that the federal mortgage stress test requires more reflection, especially its application at different points in the interest rate cycle[1].
– New Home Construction**: The focus for the Province should remain on building 1.5 million new homes to address the housing supply issue[1].

Long-Term Outlook:
– Multi-Year Recovery**: TRREB sees the beginning of a multi-year recovery process for the GTA housing market, with a gradual improvement in conditions[2].
– Price Growth**: With sales accounting for a greater share of listings, there is an expectation of almost 4% growth in the average selling price[3].

These factors collectively suggest that while the GTA housing market faces challenges, particularly in terms of affordability and supply, there are also positive signs of recovery and growth, driven by economic factors and policy interventions.

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[1] TRREB: Tighter Market Conditions in January 2024 When Compared to the Previous Year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trreb-tighter-market-conditions-january-100000328.html
[2] Toronto’s real estate market to witness multi-year recovery https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/torontos-real-estate-market-to-witness-multi-year-recovery/476506
[3] GTA Home Sales To Surge 17% In 2024, Condo Rental Market To Loosen https://storeys.com/gta-home-sales-rebound-2024/
[4] Wins Lai, Award-Winning Toronto Realtor, Provides Forecast of 2024 Housing Market https://www.accesswire.com/viewarticle.aspx?id=833032&lang=en
[5] Toronto Housing Market Outlook 2024 https://www.nesto.ca/home-buying/toronto-housing-market-outlook/
[6] TRREB forecasts that the GTA’s multi-year housing recovery will begin in 2024. https://www.stevensarasin.com/blog/trreb-forecasts-2024/
[7] 2024 Canadian Housing Outlook | 7 Key Factors – YouTube https://youtube.com/watch?v=45JKeEknBQc
[8] GTA Real Estate Market Report: January 2024 Insights and Analysis https://mcdadi.com/blog/gta-real-estate-market-report-january-2024-insights-and-analysis?utm_campaign=gta-real-estate-market-report-january-2024-insights-and-analysis&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss